La Niña is back , so soon

[Startrek (Martin)]

The east coast of NSW in particular Sydney , Central Coast and South Coast is experiencing unseasonal wet weather leading into Winter. It’s been raining off and on ( mainly overnight) since the beginning of May and doesn’t look like clearing until mid to late May.
BOM has predicted another La Niña event but it was suppose to form sometime in June or July. ( they got it wrong again )
I suppose a good time to take a short break from Astro and do other things that maybe more important like catching up with friends , jobs around the house and maybe a weekend away with your other half.
Also a good time for maintenance and service of your Astro equipment like -
Cleaning lens and mirrors on your telescopes
Cleaning eye pieces
Cleaning / Lubricating mounts
Housekeeping on Laptops and desktops
Updating your Dark library
Cleaning out / selling gear you never use
And so on ……..

Those who observe and image from the east coast of NSW are probably use to these wet weather events but it is somewhat frustrating at times.

Comments welcome

Martin

[By.Jove (Jove)]

Originally Posted by Startrek

Cleaning out / selling gear you never use

Oh well, more time and space in the potting shed.

[Leo.G (Leo)]

Wait, that's the one with all of the cloud and water?
No wonder I can't find the comet....
I always get confused, one means the boy child, one means the girl child but, I always forget which is which.
My ex was Uruguayan and spoke Spanish. I learnt a lot of swear words as they were often shouted at me but neither my son nor I actually speak Spanish. I always believed my son should have been taught as it's part of his heritage.
I'm guessing wet winter on the way yet again?

[By.Jove (Jove)]

Originally Posted by Leo.G

I'm guessing wet winter on the way yet again?

Yup and another cloudy year will pass by... Looks like some are already unloading gear in the classifieds.

[gary]

La Niña is not back. Well not yet, in any case.

The El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO), which are the criteria actually measured, is currently neutral.

The ENSO Outlook, which is the forecast, is currently at 'Inactive', meaning an El Niño or La Niña is not underway.

Originally Posted by BOM

Both Bureau and international climate models suggest ENSO will likely remain neutral until at least July 2024. El Niño and La Niña predictions made in mid-autumn tend to have lower accuracy than predictions made at other times of the year, meaning that current forecasts of the ENSO state beyond July should be used with caution.

Global sea surface temperatures (SSTs) have been the warmest on record for each month between April 2023 and March 2024, with April 2024 SSTs currently tracking warmer than April 2023. The global pattern of warmth is affecting the typical historical global pattern of sea surface temperatures associated with ENSO variability. As the current global ocean conditions have not been observed before, inferences of how ENSO may develop in 2024 that are based on past events may not be reliable.

On 30th April, ABC meteorologist Tom Saunders provided a lengthy article
explaining the current wet weather over southern Australia in terms of
a "blocking high", the name given to a high-pressure system that stalls
from several days to several weeks, and blocks the typical eastward
movement of weather. As Tim says :-

Originally Posted by Tom Saunders, meteorologist, ABC

While some blocks lead to warm and sunny weather, this week's pattern will bring cool and showery weather to the NSW coast, intensifying into areas of heavy rain this weekend which may even culminate in another bout of flooding.

Article including graphics here :-
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2024-04-...-nsw/103782106

BOM ESNO Climate Driver Update :-
http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/enso/

BOM ESNO Outlook :-
http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/enso/outlook/

[Finbar (Barry)]

Whatever is going on, here's hoping for clear skies sometime. Haven't had a decent night of viewing at home (FNQld) for more than two years! No point setting up the biggies.
Looking forward to taking three away on a 7 hour drive, for 10 days in the middle of Queensland for the early June new Moon to get a good fix (I hope). Then London (UK) for 3 months. Will there be clear skies here for return by October?

[Startrek (Martin)]

Originally Posted by gary

La Niña is not back. Well not yet, in any case.

The El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO), which are the criteria actually measured, is currently neutral.

The ENSO Outlook, which is the forecast, is currently at 'Inactive', meaning an El Niño or La Niña is not underway.



On 30th April, ABC meteorologist Tom Saunders provided a lengthy article
explaining the current wet weather over southern Australia in terms of
a "blocking high", the name given to a high-pressure system that stalls
from several days to several weeks, and blocks the typical eastward
movement of weather. As Tim says :-



Article including graphics here :-
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2024-04-...-nsw/103782106

BOM ESNO Climate Driver Update :-
http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/enso/

BOM ESNO Outlook :-
http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/enso/outlook/

Thanks Gary for the latest forecasting from BOM and ABC
My comment about La Niña occurring now was merely speculative , however the info from BOM I found had it turning from neutral to positive by June / July
Thank goodness it’s only a “Blocking High” for a week or so
Hopefully clearer skies late May

Martin

[Leo.G (Leo)]

I don't know what it is but I cant see any comet beyond the dark cloud.
Or much else for that matter (this evenings sky).

[gary]

Originally Posted by Startrek

Thanks Gary for the latest forecasting from BOM and ABC
My comment about La Niña occurring now was merely speculative , however the info from BOM I found had it turning from neutral to positive by June / July
Thank goodness it’s only a “Blocking High” for a week or so
Hopefully clearer skies late May

Martin

Thanks Martin,

The big joker in the pack now is record high sea surface temperatures.

El Nino, of course, is defined in terms of observed phenomena such as
a sea surface gradient and reverse in the direction of trade winds in the
Pacific at tropical latitudes.

In the past during El Nino years what was often observed was that the
water temperatures off the east coast of Australia would tend to become
cooler.

There would be one of those hot, dry days we would associate with El Nino
here in Sydney but you would get a surprise if you went for a swim at the
beach as to how nippy the water was.

But not this year.

This year there were abnormally high sea surface temperatures down the
east coast.

So much so that at one point it was calculated there was enough energy
in the oceans down near Bass Straight that in theory it could create
a cyclone.

With water temperatures so high this summer it resulted in hot, humid,
topical conditions here in Sydney.

On the 25th January this year, I took a couple of screen shots of
how warm the waters were off the east coast (images attached).

These warmer than average sea temperatures off the east coast were consistent
with record high global sea temperatures during 2023-2024.

As mentioned by the BOM, abnormally high global sea temperatures mean
how the ESNO responds may not follow patterns of the past.

ABC has another article today about the sustained 'blocking high' :-
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2024-05-...-nsw/103810112

Meanwhile Brazil has recently experienced a blocking weather system of its
own which blocked cold fronts and concentrated areas of instability over the southern-most
state of Rio Grande do Sul. This resulted in record rain fall in recent days breaking 150 year-old records.
There has been significant flooding. The regions affected correspond to about the latitude of Grafton in NSW.

[Ryderscope (Rodney)]

Well, for what it’s worth, last month I had enough clear nights to grab a lot of data to the extent that I now have a couple of complete data sets in my image processing queue Don’t ask me about progress this month though

[Startrek (Martin)]

Originally Posted by gary

Thanks Martin,

The big joker in the pack now is record high sea surface temperatures.

El Nino, of course, is defined in terms of observed phenomena such as
a sea surface gradient and reverse in the direction of trade winds in the
Pacific at tropical latitudes.

In the past during El Nino years what was often observed was that the
water temperatures off the east coast of Australia would tend to become
cooler.

There would be one of those hot, dry days we would associate with El Nino
here in Sydney but you would get a surprise if you went for a swim at the
beach as to how nippy the water was.

But not this year.

This year there were abnormally high sea surface temperatures down the
east coast.

So much so that at one point it was calculated there was enough energy
in the oceans down near Bass Straight that in theory it could create
a cyclone.

With water temperatures so high this summer it resulted in hot, humid,
topical conditions here in Sydney.

On the 25th January this year, I took a couple of screen shots of
how warm the waters were off the east coast (images attached).

These warmer than average sea temperatures off the east coast were consistent
with record high global sea temperatures during 2023-2024.

As mentioned by the BOM, abnormally high global sea temperatures mean
how the ESNO responds may not follow patterns of the past.

ABC has another article today about the sustained 'blocking high' :-
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2024-05-...-nsw/103810112

Meanwhile Brazil has recently experienced a blocking weather system of its
own which blocked cold fronts and concentrated areas of instability over the southern-most
state of Rio Grande do Sul. This resulted in record rain fall in recent days breaking 150 year-old records.
There has been significant flooding. The regions affected correspond to about the latitude of Grafton in NSW.

We usually have the grandkids down at my retirement getaway on the South Coast ( where my Dome is located) during January school holidays and the ocean water temperature during Summer 2022 / 2023 was quite cool compared to Summer 2023/2024 just gone which was significantly warmer. The grandkids complained how cold the water was at the beach in 2022/2023.
My wife and I just spent 2 weeks after Easter there as well and the water was still on warmish side to be honest.
So I guess their measurement data was correct.

[Startrek (Martin)]

Originally Posted by Ryderscope

Well, for what it’s worth, last month I had enough clear nights to grab a lot of data to the extent that I now have a couple of complete data sets in my image processing queue Don’t ask me about progress this month though

Yep May is washed out , maybe a night or two in the last week ??

Last month over both imaging sites ( Sydney and South Coast ) I managed 2 clear nights and 3 half nights. The 3 half nights the dew was so heavy around midnight that water was was dripping off my Dome and could have filled a bucket.

Us east coast huggers only get a handful of nights a month at best. Local cloud and sea fog usually ruin your night. I often look on the satellite map west of the divide and the majority of the time it’s pristine clear and I’ve got this annoying local cloud bank that’s seems to always hover and move slowly over my area.

Late July , August and September historically are our better months , cool nights , low humidity and dry westerly winds.