MUARC have a track record of fudging figures to suit their agenda, the Motorcycle lobby for starters are still fighting this whole 5kmh over the speed limit means you wont stop in time and kill a kitten
I've been close to pulling the trigger on an EV purchase once but backed off. It is stats like this that made me reconsider:
From drive.com.au: According to a June 2024 McKinsey Mobility Consumer survey – which polled more than 30,000 respondents across various countries including Australia – close to half of Australian (49 per cent) EV owners said they are “very likely” to switch back to traditional petrol and diesel vehicles.
The most popular reason given was subpar charging infrastructure.
I'm going to wait till the stats look better, I wouldn't want to be in the 49% that regretted a $100k decision.
close to half of Australian (49 per cent) EV owners said they are “very likely” to switch back to traditional petrol and diesel vehicles.[/I]
I read that article too. I don't know who they surveyed, but everyone I know who has an EV have said they wouldn't go back to an ICE car. In fact, I know people who have upgraded their EVs to new ones several times (the benefits of novated leasing), and others who now have 2 EVs.
Having said that, I love my Cupra EV, but I have no plans on giving up my classic car. A guy's got to have some fun on the weekends.
I've been close to pulling the trigger on an EV purchase once but backed off. It is stats like this that made me reconsider:
From drive.com.au: According to a June 2024 McKinsey Mobility Consumer survey – which polled more than 30,000 respondents across various countries including Australia – close to half of Australian (49 per cent) EV owners said they are “very likely” to switch back to traditional petrol and diesel vehicles.
The most popular reason given was subpar charging infrastructure.
I'm going to wait till the stats look better, I wouldn't want to be in the 49% that regretted a $100k decision.
Thanks, I did. Clean Technica is a California based clean energy news aggregator. They didn't refute the McKinsey Mobility Consumer Survey, they just presented the details pertinent to the U.S. with a positive spin.
They state that "29% of electric vehicle owners are considering a switch back to a traditional combustion engine car", however, this is across all countries surveyed. For the U.S. alone it is 46% and the Clean Technica article does not dispute this claim.
For Australian EV owners it is 49% according to the survey, which is the highest of any country.
I’ve never understood the logic of opposition with discussing EV. After all, they just have a different power source. Wars gave been won and lost on blind opposition to something much the same, only slightly different. Maybe someone here can explain the concept behind hate to me in simple terms.
EV will take the lead sooner or later on pure economics. I’ve used my diesel 4x4 twice (for relatively short, utilitarian purposes) since I bought my EV a year ago. Using my own solar, I haven’t paid to charge it in over 12000km.
Petrol/diesel continues to increment in price, and anyone who thinks it’s not going to surge in price at some point once the balance tips is just deluding themselves. Many also don't consider the energy independence equation, which is short sighted considering we don’t produce oil in significant quantity.
Sure, we have a way to go on charging infrastructure here in Aus, it’s more challenging than in more densely populated countries, but we’ll get good coverage eventually. Maybe more Optus than Telstra for a few years. How long did it take to setup petroleum distribution?
Everyone’s use case is different for sure, but Australia is one of the most highly urbanised countries in the world, and EV fit the majority of use cases very easily. It’s just the cost accessibility factor, which over time will reduce for EV and increase for ICE.
Of course there are use cases for the old tech which will mean some will cling to life for many more years to come, and that’s OK. But it’s foolish to think that we have failed just because we didn’t change the world overnight.
A production manager for BMW noted some years ago that the engine for their premium ICE line had about 2,500 parts, of which several hundred were moving parts. The assembly line operator needed to install it with a crane. Once complete the engine would need constant fuel, lubrication and coolant replenishment plus maintenance of belts, plugs, injectors, bearings etc. etc. to run.
On their EV production line the engine had six main parts of which three were moving. The production line tech could put it in the car without a crane. Maintenance was effectively nil.
(this has certainly been my experience with Tesla)
Complex engineering with a massive on-going parts inventory or keep it simple with few parts? Humm...
From a manufacturer's perspective the die is already cast.
From a energy distribution perspective, you can power an EV with the sun from PV array on your roof. No need for deep ocean oil rigs, millions of pump jacks, massive bulk oil carriers, refineries, fuel-tanker trucks etc.
If there is an AC power plug nearby you can charge your EV car (albeit slowly). Fast charging stations for longer journeys are being rolled out.
Look guys, I agree. I just don't think the economics or infrastructure are there yet, well not to my satisfaction anyway.
Let me explain, I'll use the car maker MG since they make both one of the cheapest petrol, the MG3, and cheapest EV, the MG4 available in Australia. Very similar vehicles.
The MG3 sells for $18,990, the MG4 sells for $37,990. Similar cars but the EV costs $19,000 more.
The $19,000 saved will currently buy 11,875 litres of fuel for the MG3. The MG3 gets 6.7L/100km, call it 7L/100, so the 11,176 litres can give you 159,000km of petrol powered travel.
In other words, if you are paying nothing for your electricity you will have to travel 159,000km in the MG4 before you break even on the purchase cost over the MG3.
On service costs, for a 40,000km/24 month service for the MG3 it is $323. The 40,000/24 service for the MG4 is $296. Not much of a saving.
Battery life is another cost. MG say to expect a battery lifetime on average of 10 years and the replacement cost of the battery is currently $10,908. Now I have no idea what the ICE lifetime is on the MG3 but I would expect at least 15-20 years if you take care.
Now, again, I do think I'll be driving EV in the future, but I'll need better supporting infrastructure and longer life, lower cost batteries, or a massive hike in fuel costs before that happens.
Thanks for posting this Peter. It is a hobby horse that I get on to when I hear others trot out misinformation particularly in reference to EV safety and, more specifically, EV fires. One quite often hears statements that EVs will be more likely catch fire in a collision and this proposition is simply not supported by the numbers. There are millions of EVs in the world now so we have a very solid base from which to look at the statistics for EV fires v ICE vehicle fires.
Based on figures that I’ve seen from EV FireSafe (an Australian organisation) and European motoring organisations, ICE vehicles are EIGHTY THREE (83) times more likely to be involved in a fire incident than EVs. The numbers speak for themselves.
We are now proud owners of a Kia EV6 (since February this year) and love it. We’ve done a few long trips and survived to tell the story The energy running costs are a fraction of that of our ICE vehicle.
So for those that are resisting the change I will continue with trotting out the cliches by noting that if one does not get on the steam roller of progress one stands the risk of getting run over by it
We were early adopters of the Tesla Model3 in the USA…it works very well for how we drive. Our cost of operating it has been frighteningly low. I look forward to the continuing evolution of the technology.
I work in a field that supplies materials into the automotive space, and some of the potential ways forward have the potential to radically change mobility.
Hey we just bought a $20k bargain EV, Nissan Leaf, we can't go more than 200km but we only need to commute 70km round trip usually. So you don't need to be on a jumbo sized pension to afford one. Built amazingly well and solid, I'm a Nissan convert now!
Hey we just bought a $20k bargain EV, Nissan Leaf, we can't go more than 200km but we only need to commute 70km round trip usually. So you don't need to be on a jumbo sized pension to afford one. Built amazingly well and solid, I'm a Nissan convert now!
Good on you Simon! Just be mindful of the visually impaired, I've had no luck there to date, but never know.
Question ?? if petroleum prices are set based on supply and demand as demand for fuel for ICE vehicles declines with ever increasing EV numbers does that result in fuel prices declining to an extent where people will buy ICE vehicles as they become more economical and fuel efficient
Back in the early days of the automobile the majority were electric before petrol became ever increasingly cheap to fend off the evil early electric adopters.
Question ?? if petroleum prices are set based on supply and demand as demand for fuel for ICE vehicles declines with ever increasing EV numbers does that result in fuel prices declining to an extent where people will buy ICE vehicles as they become more economical and fuel efficient
Great question…I do not know but like the way you think.
Supply and Demand will certainly impact, I suspect that initially it might allow prices to drift down but at some point (assuming the trend continues), it becomes difficult to support a refinery without sufficient throughput.
I do not know the make up of the costs and taxes in Australia on the cost of petrol. Which would impact how quickly (or if) price would decline.
It will more likely result in people paying HUGE prices for petrol to keep the industry alive, we can't have the billionaire oil barons driving around in Toyota's.
The level of subsidies that fossil fuel producers get from Australian taxpayers
is rather obscene $14.5 Billion in 23-24
It's obscene as companies like Chevron, Royal Dutch Shell etc. have revenues that are more than many small countries (around $200 Billion) , yet continue to ask for taxpayer handouts.
Fossil fuels, as a high density fuel, still have a place in agriculture, aviation
and manufacturing etc.....but for a highly urbanized country like Oz ,having millions of us burning the stuff for a daily commute is madness.
It also beggars belief that as many city dwellers are being moved into high density towers, body corporates frequently refuse owners permission to install...at their own expense ..a garage charger!
Yet State legislators do not have the gonads to invoke laws that would such
asinine refusals illegal. To quote Lennon (John) "Strange days indeed"
The energy running costs are a fraction of that of our ICE vehicle. 
